Regional Senate Candidates Fare Better Distancing Themselves from Trump New Survey Finds

The survey, done by Chris Haynes, assistant professor of political science at the University of New Haven, and Neil Chaturvedi, assistant professor of political science at California State  Polytechnic University in Pomona, shows that Senate candidates who distance themselves from Trump gain support among voters in swing states. Indeed, subjects in the survey experiment who were exposed to the disloyal Republican candidate had a nine percentage point advantage over loyal Republicans in swing states.

The advantage is slightly smaller for candidates who are ambiguous about their support for Trump, Haynes said.  "Being loyal is not beneficial and the advantage of disloyalty is growing."

Of the 24 incumbent Republicans running for Senate, 12 look likely to be re-elected, Haynes said. Nine come from swing states or states that look to be competitive in the 2016 presidential election. One, Illinois Sen. Mark Kirk, defends his seat in a reliably blue state.

In red states, disloyal Republic candidates have a six-point advantage, according to the new poll. Perhaps most glaring is the difference in how people feel about voting for the disloyal Republican candidate—Democrats, liberals, and conservatives were all more excited to vote for the disloyal Republican when compared to the responses of the same group for the loyal Republican, Haynes said. Voters in red states and swing states also reported a higher excitement to vote for the disloyal candidate than those that were exposed to the loyal candidate.

"This has serious implications for strategy, especially for candidates like Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, who are on the fence," said Haynes.  "People are increasingly more turned off to Trump and so disloyalty has become the optimal strategy."

The survey was conducted in June. "I strongly suspect that over the summer, people have gotten more turned off to Trump and that may hurt those Senate candidates running on the Republican ticket who do not distance themselves from Trump," Haynes said.

Haynes and Chaturvedi also tested whether an ambiguous view of Trump would help or hurt candidates.  "The ambiguous strategy, in which the candidate refuses to take a position on Trump, makes the Republican more appealing at a marginal rate for Democrats, Independents, Republican and liberal voters," Haynes said. "And slightly more appealing for them in blue and red states.  It is clear, however, that the disloyal strategy is much more effective and likely will continue to be as Trump alienates more voters.

GOP Senate Candidates, 2016

Name	State	State Type	Strategy	Endorsed
Kelly Ayotte	NH	Purple	Ambiguous	No
Roy Blunt	MO	Purple	Loyal	Yes
Richard Burr	NC	Red	Loyal	Yes
Chuck Grassley	IA	Purple	Loyal	Yes
John Hoeven	ND	Red	Loyal	Yes
Johnny Isakson	GA	Red	Loyal	Yes
Ron Johnson	WI	Blue	Loyal/Ambiguous	Yes
Mark Kirk	IL	Blue	Disloyal	No
Mike Lee	UT	Red	Ambiguous	No
John McCain	AZ	Red	Loyal/Ambiguous	Yes
Lisa Murkowski	AK	Red	Loyal	Yes
Rob Portman	OH	Purple	Loyal/Ambiguous	Yes
Marco Rubio	FL	Purple	Loyal/Ambiguous	Yes
Tim Scott	SC	Red	Loyal	Yes
Dick Shelby	AL	Red	Ambiguous	No
Pat Toomey	PA	Blue	Ambiguous	No

Photo of Kelly Ayotte courtesy of Wikipedia.